A method of controlling and/or predicting the remaining useful life of an active material actuator, such as a shape memory alloy wire, includes obtaining historical actuation data of an inherent system variable, such as electrical resistance, over a secondary variable, such as time, determining a normal operating envelope having upper and lower bounds based on the data, determining a current profile for a given actuation cycle, and comparing the shape of the current profile to the envelope to determine an out-of-bounds event.