Methods and systems are provided herewith for creating and managing wagers on possible states within a live event, such as possible outcomes of subparts of a sporting event or other possible occurrences within the event. An initial state and multiple possible future states of a performance parameter of the event is determined based on state information of the event. A betting market may be created by determining probabilities and odds for the possible future states. The betting market is closed after bets are received and before an end of an initial state of the performance parameter. A payout may be made to a winner who selected the correct outcome of the performance parameter.