Implementations are directed to predicting signal degradation at receivers used to display a programming service. The receivers capture signal strength data that is then transmitted to a processing location, which may be associated with a provider of the programming service. A signal degradation detector at the provider operates to predict whether or not a future unacceptable signal quality will occur within a time interval. The prediction may be based on a test quantity calculated from signals captured at the receiver and based on a figure of merit for the geographic locale in which the receiver is located. A maintenance call may be initiated for those receivers that have such a poor signal quality.