Methods for identifying hydrocarbon plays include applying predictive models to sediment fill volume(s) to provide play-element volume(s) representing at least one play element. Each play-element volume represents at least 1) qualities of the at least one play element and 2) a probability that the at least one play element satisfies determined criteria for each of a plurality of locations within a basin. The methods further include analyzing the play-element volume(s) to define play-concept volume(s) representing hydrocarbon play(s). Each of a plurality of locations within the play-concept volume(s) is attributed with: 1) an identification of each play element associated with the location, 2) the qualities of each play element, 3) the probability for each play element that it satisfies determined criteria, and 4) a composite likelihood that the location represents a hydrocarbon play. At least one of the volumes may be used to identify hydrocarbon play(s).