A method and device generates probability-based recommendations for a fantasy sports game. The method includes receiving first and second rosters for a first and second user, respectively; receiving parameter values for each sport player on the rosters; determining a score value for the sport players based on the parameter values; determining first and second lineups for the first and second users, respectively, the first lineup having a first projected probability distribution and the second lineup having a second projected probability distribution, the first and second projected probability distributions determined as a function of the score values; and determining a win probability value based on the first and second projected probability distributions, the win probability value indicative of a prediction of a comparison between a first actual total score value and a second actual total score value.