Vehicle apparatus adjusts a vehicle powertrain of the vehicle in response to a speed setpoint. An optimizer selects a control policy to periodically generate speed adjustments for applying to the speed setpoint to operate at increased efficiency. The control policy is based on a value function providing an optimized solution for a cost model and a transition probability model. The transition probability model corresponds to a driving state defined according to a plurality of dimensions including a time-of-day dimension and a geographic region dimension. The transition probability model and the control policy have inputs based on road grade and speed. The optimizer collects road grade data during routine driving of the vehicle to construct a observed transition probability model and uses divergence between the observed transition probability model and a set of predetermined transition probability models to identify a control policy for use during the routine driving.