Embodiments of the present invention generally relate to temperature control of a reactor using probability distribution of temperature measurements. In one embodiment, a method of controlling a temperature of a chemical reaction includes injecting a reactant stream into a reactor and through a catalyst bed of the reactor. The reactant stream includes a hydrocarbon and oxygen. Injection of the reactant stream into the catalyst bed causes an exothermic chemical reaction. The method further includes circulating a coolant through the reactor, thereby removing heat from the catalyst bed. The method further includes measuring temperature at a plurality of locations in the catalyst bed. The method further includes calculating a fraction of the catalyst bed greater than a predetermined maximum temperature limit using a probability distribution generated using the temperature measurements.