In certain embodiments, a computer-implemented method includes receiving a request for a reliability estimate associated with an ad hoc application. In response to the request, one or more components associated with the ad hoc application and upon which the ad hoc application relies are identified. The method also includes generating a directed graph. The directed graph identifies one or more dependency relationships among the identified components. The method also includes calculating, based at least in part on the directed graph, a reliability estimate for the ad hoc application.