The system and method provides team guidance recommendations. The system and method provides player selection guidance by realistically valuing top-tier and lower-tier players. The system and method provides situational-based starting lineup recommendations by creating and using tier-specific, non-normal distributions in a probability distribution-based system for providing fantasy sports player selection guidance. The system and method generates variance and accuracy information from historical data of a particular player projection system, and generates non-normal fantasy point distributions from the same player projection system using the previously generated variance and accuracy information.