A method and system determines capacity needs of components in a distributed computer system. In the method and system, a pair-wise invariant network is determined from collected flow intensity measurements. The network includes at least two separate and unconnected pair-wise invariant subnetworks, each of the subnetworks including two of the flow intensity measurements connected by a pairwise invariant, each of the pair-wise invariants characterizing a constant relationship between their two connected flow intensity measurements. At least one overlay invariant is determined from the pair-wise invariant network and from the collected flow intensity measurements using a minimal redundancy least regression process. The capacity needs of the components are determined using the pair-wise and overlay invariants.