A method for measuring blood levels of β cell DNA that is released upon β cell death by using a quantitative probe technology to detect amplified methylated and demethylated forms of the insulin gene DNA, representing normal tissue and β cell specific origin, respectively. Using probes permits the sensitive and specific identification of demethylated insulin DNA patterns that are present only in β cells. The method offers a bioassay for detecting β cell loss in diabetes, useful for screening of prediabetes, monitoring of disease progression, and selection and monitoring of therapies. The technique finds potential use in both Type I and Type II diabetes, as well as gestational diabetes.