A method for identifying variations in aircraft operational parameters includes processing a four-dimensional (4D) aircraft trajectory for a flight along a defined route. The method also includes determining an aircraft intent corresponding to the flight along the defined route based at least in part on an aircraft performance model from a trajectory predictor. The aircraft intent includes multiple segments and corresponding intent parameters. In addition, the method includes adjusting the intent parameters such that a computed 4D trajectory substantially corresponds to the 4D aircraft trajectory. The method further includes determining a computed operational parameter based at least in part on the computed 4D trajectory and the aircraft performance model from the trajectory predictor. In addition, the method includes identifying variations between the computed operational parameter and a corresponding measured operational parameter.