An exhaust treatment system to treat exhaust gas includes a particulate filter and a pressure sensor. The particulate filter is configured to trap soot contained in exhaust gas. The pressure sensor is configured to output a pressure signal indicative of a pressure differential of the particulate filter. The exhaust treatment system further includes a soot mass module configured to determine a soot mass. The soot mass is indicative of an amount of soot stored in the particulate filter based on the pressure differential and a soot model stored in a memory device. The exhaust treatment system further includes a continuously regenerating trap (CRT) compensation module configured to generate a variable CRT threshold. The CRT compensation module selectively outputs a CRT compensation value that modifies the soot model based on comparison between the NOx flow rate and the soot mass-based variable CRT threshold.