A method is performed in a mobile device for selecting or excluding an access point for use in wirelessly connecting to a network. The method includes collecting historical connection data for a first access point, wherein the historical connection data identifies a plurality of previous wireless connections to the network using the first access point and identifies a corresponding duration of each previous wireless connection. The method further includes: detecting that the first access point is available for a current wireless connection to the network; calculating an expected connection duration for the first access point using the historical connection data; and determining whether to select or exclude the first access point as a candidate for the current wireless connection based on the expected connection duration calculated for the first access point.