A commercial detection system generates a probe audio fingerprint of an audio signal associated with a media stream on a broadcast channel and determines whether the media stream has commercial content based on analysis of the probe audio fingerprint. The commercial detection system determines whether a same match between the probe audio fingerprint and a reference audio fingerprint is observed across multiple broadcast channels. Responsive to the number of same matches exceeding a predetermined threshold, the commercial detection system determines that the media stream has commercial content. The commercial detection system may also apply a trained feature analysis model to extracted acoustic features of the audio signal. The commercial detection system determines whether the media stream has commercial content based on a confidence score assigned to the probe audio fingerprint. The commercial detection system reduces false positive detection using program guide information of the media stream.