A system, computer implemented method, and computer program product for analyzing an installation to determine a file system promotion path during an online patching cycle. The method commences by identifying an initial file system and a shadow file system, the shadow file system being at least some duration older than the initial run file system, then analyzing a history of events that occurred in or on the installation during the duration to determine a degree of confidence. Based on the degree of confidence, then selecting the initial file system to be used on the online patching cycle when the confidence value is equal or above a threshold, or selecting the shadow file system to be used in the online patching cycle when the confidence value is below a threshold. The history of events is recorded in forms of a patch list, a log file, or a list of configuration events.