An artificial intelligence expert system for screening provides characteristic profiles to candidates to perform a particular task. The profiles have individual screening items within them that are expected to be related to whether or not a person is suitable for the task. The responses from the persons to the items are received by a computer implemented expert system. The expert system applies a combined model to the responses to generate a forecasted performance of the person to the task. The combined model is a linear combination of two or more path dependent regressions performed on data from a set of N training persons with known abilities to do the task. The number of parameters in each path dependent model is limited to a fraction of the number N so that the path dependent models are not over fit to the data. A suitable fraction is ⅕.