An LED lighting device for supplying a main voltage by an AC power supply is provided. The device has a rectifier for producing a rectified AC voltage from the main voltage, an LED light unit having multiple of LEDs and a circuit arrangement, and a control device for controlling the circuit arrangement. The circuit arrangement switches the LEDs to different circuit states, in which the LED light unit has different forward voltages. The control device controls the circuit arrangement, in such a way that the forward voltage of the LED light unit is adjusted to the voltage profile of the rectified AC voltage. The device also has a modelling device for modelling a modelled voltage profile. The control device controls the circuit states based on the modelled voltage profile. The modelled voltage profile is modelled based on measured variables for describing the real voltage profile of the main voltage.