A system determines that current wagering game establishment activity data of a user satisfies wagering game establishment offer evaluation criteria (401). The system accesses, over a network, past activity data of the user at least partially in response to determining that the current wagering game establishment activity data of the user satisfies the wagering game establishment offer evaluation criteria (403). The system analyzes the past activity data based, at least in part, on a desired effect and the current wagering game establishment activity data (405). The system computes likelihood that at least one of a set of offers can achieve the desired effect based on the analysis result (407). The system selects a first of the set of offers based, at least in part, on determining the likelihood that at least one of the set of offers can achieve the desired effect (409). The system presents the selected first offer to the user (413).