An embodiment of the invention provides a method for determining a patient-specific probability of renal transplant survival. The method collects clinical parameters from a plurality of renal transplant donor and patient to create a training database. A fully unsupervised Bayesian Belief Network model is created using data from the training database; and, the fully unsupervised Bayesian Belief Network is validated. Clinical parameters are collected from an individual patient/donor; and, such clinical parameters are input into the fully unsupervised Bayesian Belief Network model via a graphical user interface. The patient-specific probability of disease is output from the fully unsupervised Bayesian Belief Network model and sent to the graphical user interface for use by a clinician in pre-operative organ matching. The fully unsupervised Bayesian Belief Network model is updated using the clinical parameters from the individual patient and the patient-specific probability of transplant survival.