In some embodiments, vehicle-based natural gas leak detection methods are used to generate 2-D spatial distributions (heat maps) of gas emission source probabilities and surveyed area locations using measured gas concentrations and associated geospatial (e.g. GPS) locations, wind direction and wind speed, and atmospheric condition data. Bayesian updates are used to incorporate the results of one or more measurement runs into computed spatial distributions. Operating in gas-emission plume space rather than raw concentration data space allows reducing the computational complexity of updating gas emission source probability heat maps. Gas pipeline location data and other external data may be used to determine the heat map data.