A system for analyzing an environment to identify a security risk in a process, comprising a model engine to generate a model of the environment using multiple components defining adjustable elements of the model and including components representing a patching process for the environment, a risk analyzer to calculate multiple randomized instances of an outcome for the environment using multiple values for parameters of the elements of the model selected from within respective predefined ranges for the parameters, and to use a results plan to provide data for identifying a security risk in the patching process using the multiple instances.