A method and system is provided for detecting at risk structures due to mask overlay that occur during lithography processes. The method can be implemented in a computer infrastructure having computer executable code tangibly embodied on a computer readable storage medium having programming instructions. The programming instructions are operable to obtain a simulation of a metal layer and a via, and determine a probability that an arbitrary point (x, y) on the metal layer is covered by the via by calculating a statistical coverage area metric followed by mathematical approximations of a summing function.