Devices and methods for detecting physiological target event such as events indicative of HF decompensation status are described. An ambulatory medical device (AMD) can measure bio-impedance, such as thoracic impedance, from a patient. The AMD can receive a specified threshold within a range or a distribution of impedance measurement, or a specified percentile such as less than 50th percentile, and calculate a representative impedance value (ZRep) corresponding to the specified threshold or percentile using a plurality of thoracic impedance measurements. The representative impedance value can be calculated using an adaptation process, or using an estimated distribution of the impedance measurements. The AMD can include a physiologic event detector circuit that can generate a trend of representative impedance values over a specified time period, and to detect a target physiologic event such as indicative of HF decompensation using the trend of representative impedance values.