Embodiments are directed to receiving, by a computing device comprising a processor, an anticipated usage input, a load input and a strength input associated with a unit, calculating, by the computing device, a baseline reliability value based at least in part on the anticipated usage input, the load input and the strength input, receiving, by the computing device, usage data associated with use of the unit, generating, by the computing device, an updated reliability value based on at least some of the inputs used to calculate the baseline reliability value and the usage data, and determining, by the computing device, a lifetime for the unit based on the updated reliability value.