Apparatus and methods for managing and upgrading components in an infrastructure are provided. Records relating to components may be retrieved from a database and separated into subsets based on conditions of those components, the types of those components, deterioration models of those components, and/or other factors. Future condition values may be calculated for each subset, and likelihoods of failure of components may be determined for each subset based on those future condition values. The estimated condition values may be used in order to determine an optimal approach to maintaining, refurbishing, and/or replacing the components in the infrastructure. Computational efficiency is increased.