A method includes receiving contextual data related to at least one of environmental, physiological, behavioral, and historical context, and receiving outcome data related to at least one outcome. The method further includes creating a feature set from the contextual data, selecting a subset of features from the feature set, assigning a score to each feature in the subset of features according to the probability that the feature is a predictor of the at least one outcome, and generating a characteristic curve for the at least one outcome from the subset of features, the characteristic curve being based on the scoring. The method further includes calculating the area under the characteristic curve, and using, the area under the characteristic curve, identifying whether the subset of features is a suitable predictor for the at least one outcome.