A method, system, and computer program product for social collaboration in probabilistic prediction are provided in the illustrative embodiments. A set of predictions is sent to a user device. A prediction in the set of predictions is a probability of an outcome of an event. The probability is computed using a prediction model trained with training data corresponding to the event. An input is received from the user device. The input comprises a new prediction made at the user device using a new prediction model executing on the user device. A difference is determined between the prediction and the new prediction. The prediction model is revised to produce a revised prediction. A revised difference between the revised prediction and the new prediction is smaller than the difference.