A data processing system performs query progress estimation based on processed value packets. In the illustrative data processing system, a database query processor comprises a query optimizer that creates a query plan, and a database plan executor that executes the query plan and observes intermediate result streams processed as the query plan is executed. A value packet manager anticipates value packets during query optimization, creates value packets as the intermediate result streams are processed, and compares anticipated value packets with created value packets to determine accuracy of the anticipated value packets and estimate query progress.