Methods, devices, and systems are provided for correcting lag in measurements of analyte concentration level in interstitial fluid. The invention includes receiving a signal representative of sensor data from an analyte monitoring system related to an analyte level measured over time, computing rates of change of the sensor data for a time period of the sensor data, computing a rate distribution of the rates of change, transforming the rate distribution into a linear arrangement, determining a best-fit line for the transformed rate distribution, computing a slope of the best-fit line; and using the slope of the best-fit line as a representation of a variability of the analyte level to adjust an amount of lag correction applied to the sensor data. Numerous additional features are disclosed.