Systems and methods for initiating voltage recovery procedures in a fuel cell system based in part on an estimated specific activity over the life of a fuel cell catalyst are presented. In certain embodiments, SA loss of catalyst and electrochemical surface area loss of a FC system may be estimated. An output voltage of the FC system may be estimated based on the estimated SA loss and the electrochemical surface area loss. An amount of recoverable voltage loss may be determined based on a comparison between the estimated output voltage and a measured output voltage. Based on the determined amount of recordable voltage loss, a FC system control action (e.g., a voltage recovery procedure) may be initiated.