A method and system for transit characteristic prediction. In one embodiment, a method may include determining respective transit latencies from a source location to a number of destination locations, and grouping the destination locations according to a similarity criterion into a number of subsets corresponding to respective geographical regions, where transit characteristics of locations grouped into a geographical region may each satisfy the similarity criterion. The method may further include determining a respective distribution associated with each of the geographical regions, where a given respective distribution correlates a given transit characteristic from the source location to a given geographical region with a respective surety factor, where the respective surety factor includes a cumulative probability that the given transit characteristic will be achieved. The method may also include dynamically updating the respective transit characteristic, the grouping of destination locations into geographical regions and the respective distributions dependent upon collecting empirical transit data.