Embodiments relate systems and methods for detecting network conditions based on a correlation between trend lines. In embodiments, a network management server can monitor the status and operation of network machines, such as servers or targets, as well as network transmission hardware (e.g. routers). Streams of network operation data from those sources can be captured and stored. The management server or other logic can examine the network operation data to identify trend lines for network conditions, such as application faults, attempted intrusions, or other events or conditions. Trend line data can be treated to generate second or other higher-order derivatives, such as third-order derivatives or others. A time correlation between two or more trend lines and/or their higher order derivatives, for instance, the occurrence of a peak value in the same time window, can be used to identify an event, state or condition.