Network devices are steered to preferred access points using a probability function. A probe request for connection is received from a network device. The probe request can be from a network device attempting to use a wireless network (e.g., a IEEE 802.11-type network or other suitable type of network). A probability function that defines a likelihood of granting the network device a connection is used to determine whether to accept or deny the response. The probe response is then sent to the network device.