公开(公告)号：KR1020140103589A

公开(公告)日：2014-08-27

申请号：KR1020130017152

申请日：2013-02-18

Applicant: 아주대학교산학협력단

Inventor： 이재응 ,  최창원

IPC: G01W1/14 ,  G01S13/95

CPC classification number: Y02A90/14 ,  Y02A90/18 ,  G01W1/14 ,  G01W1/10 ,  G01W2201/00

Abstract: The present invention relates to a flood forecast method using MAPLE weather forecast data and a device thereof. According to the present invention, the flood forecast method using MAPLE weather forecast data comprises a step of extracting hourly MAPLE rainfall forecast data for a flood forecast area from a weather radar; a step of extracting hourly observed mean rainfall volume data for the area from a rainfall observatory in the area; a step of extracting hourly runoff volume data corresponding to hourly water level observation data from a water level observatory in the area; a step of forming flood forecast models by learning multiple input data models obtained by combining the MAPLE rainfall forecast data, the observed mean rainfall volume data for the area, and the runoff volume data through stored past flood events; a step of forecasting the flood through the flood forecast models by the lead time of the flood forecast and then selecting the flood forecast models forecasting the flood most accurately the lead time; and a step of generating a final flood forecast model by combining the flood forecast models selected by the lead time. The present invention can increase the accuracy of the flood forecast using the MAPLE weather forecast data as short-term rainfall forecast data and all kinds of observation data, and can easily generate and renew the flood forecast models only using the monitoring data and the weather forecast data easily obtained by ANFIS-based flood forecast models as a data-oriented model.

Abstract translation: 本发明涉及使用MAPLE天气预报数据的洪水预报方法及其装置。 根据本发明，使用MAPLE天气预报数据的洪水预报方法包括从气象雷达中提取汛期预报区域的小时MAPLE降水预报数据的步骤; 从该地区降水天文台提取小时观测到的该地区平均降雨量数据的步骤; 从该地区的水位观测台抽取对应于小时水位观测资料的小时径流量数据的步骤; 通过学习通过组合MAPLE降雨预报数据，该区域观测到的平均降雨量数据和通过存储的过去洪水事件的径流量数据获得的多个输入数据模型，形成洪水预报模型的步骤; 通过洪水预报的时间段，通过洪水预报模型预测洪水的一个步骤，然后选择洪水预报模型最准确地预测洪水的交付时间; 并通过组合在提前期选择的洪水预报模型，生成最终的洪水预报模型。 本发明可以使用MAPLE天气预报数据作为短期降雨预报数据和各种观测数据提高洪水预报的准确性，并且可以使用监测数据和天气预报轻松生成和更新洪水预报模型 基于ANFIS的洪水预报模型容易获得的数据作为数据导向模型。