In various implementations, a method includes receiving a set of time series data that corresponds to a metric. A seasonal pattern is extracted from the set of time series data and the extracted seasonal pattern is filtered from the set of time series data. A predictive model is generated from the filtered set of data. The extracted seasonal pattern is filtered from another set of time series data where the second set of time series data corresponds to the metric. The filtered second set of time series data is compared to the predictive model. An alert is generated to a user for a value within the filtered second set of time series data which falls outside of the predictive model.