A pattern forming method includes: a first step of forming a first pattern to define a first shot arrangement; and a second step of performing an imprint process, thereby forming a second pattern on the imprint material on the first pattern and defining a second shot arrangement. In the second step, the second shot arrangement is defined so as to reduce an overlay error between the first and second shot arrangements by deforming the mold. In the first step, based on information of the estimated second shot arrangement definable on the substrate when the second step is performed after the second pattern formed on the mold is amended by deforming the mold, the first pattern is formed to make an overlay error between the first and second shot arrangements fall within an allowable range.