公开(公告)号：WO2012138688A1

公开(公告)日：2012-10-11

申请号：PCT/US2012/032062

申请日：2012-04-04

Applicant: THE CATHOLIC UNIVERSITY OF AMERICA ,  FORBES, Kevin, F. ,  ZAMPELLI, Ernest, M. ,  ST.CYR, O., Chris

Inventor： FORBES, Kevin, F. ,  ZAMPELLI, Ernest, M. ,  ST.CYR, O., Chris

IPC: G06F11/30

CPC classification number: G06Q30/0202 ,  G06Q10/04 ,  G06Q50/06 ,  Y04S10/54 ,  Y04S50/14

Abstract: Systems and methods improve the forecast of electricity consumption, and/or refining such predictions. Predictions may be refined by accounting for factors such as preliminary predictions, pricing and cost information associated with future supply of energy, the extent of anticipated changes in the predictions, the time of day and/or anticipated daylight for the period of time. Coefficient values are calculated for a forecast error model that takes into account factors related to electricity consumption using existing historical electrical grid data. Using the calculated values, the forecast error model may be applied to current electricity demand forecasts.

Abstract translation: 系统和方法提高了用电量的预测和/或改进了这些预测。 可以通过考虑与未来能源供应相关的初步预测，定价和成本信息，预测的预期变化程度，时间和/或期望的预期日光等因素来改进预测。 对于使用现有历史电网数据考虑与电力消耗相关的因素的预测误差模型，计算系数值。 使用计算值，预测误差模型可能适用于当前的电力需求预测。

公开(公告)号：WO2017201427A1

公开(公告)日：2017-11-23

申请号：PCT/US2017/033577

申请日：2017-05-19

Applicant: THE CATHOLIC UNIVERSITY OF AMERICA

Inventor： FORBES, Kevin, F. ,  ZAMPELLI, Ernest, M.

IPC: G06F17/30 ,  G06G7/10 ,  G06Q10/06 ,  G06Q30/02 ,  H02J3/38 ,  H02P9/04

Abstract: A computer system and method for improving the accuracy of predictions of the amount of renewable energy, such as solar energy and wind energy, available to an electric utility, and/or refine such predictions, by providing improved integration of meteorological forecasts. Coefficient values are calculated for a renewable energy generation model by performing a regression analysis with the forecasted level of renewable energy posted by the utility, forecasted weather conditions and measures of seasonality as explanatory variables. Accuracy is further enhanced through the inclusion of a large number of time series variables that reflect the systematic nature of the energy/weather system. The model also uses the original forecast posted by the system operator as well as variables to control for season.

Abstract translation: 通过提供改进的用于提高对电力公司可用的可再生能源（诸如太阳能和风能）的量的预测的准确性和/或改进这种预测的计算机系统和方法 气象预报的整合。 通过对公用事业公布的可再生能源预测水平，预测的天气条件和季节性度量作为解释变量进行回归分析，计算可再生能源发电模型的系数值。 通过纳入反映能源/天气系统系统性质的大量时间序列变量，进一步提高了准确性。 该模型还使用系统操作员发布的原始预测以及变量来控制季节。